New: Vaccine Risk vs. Disease Risk
The Vaccine Math Nobody Added Up—Until Now
Imagine you’re a parent considering the CDC’s vaccine schedule: 43 shots with somewhere around 63 doses of vaccine your child is supposed to get by age 18—measles, flu, Covid, the works. You’ve heard the pitch: vaccines save lives, protect the herd, keep diseases in check. But you may naturally wonder: What’s the actual risk to my kid from all these shots when compared to the diseases they’re meant to stop?
Here’s the catch—no one’s ever put out a full, public breakdown of those cumulative odds, assuming vaccines even work as advertised. (Spoiler: they don’t always—Covid shots don’t stop infection or spread, some vaccinated people still catch measles, mumps, and flu today, and all of the last cases of polio in the US were caused by the vaccine.)
Enter Grok, an AI from xAI, which I asked to crunch the numbers. Grok is imperfect, and yet it can still provide us a window and the best idea we, as outsiders, can get to arrive at ballpark numbers and some insight into a vexing controversy.
The results?
On paper, using publicly available data from the Center for Disease Control (CDC) and other sources, vaccinating looks way riskier for your kid than skipping the shots in 2025. There are caveats, but I’ll examine this conclusion step by step, and explain why, when parents raise eyebrows, it’s not just unfounded conspiracy talk.
An obvious note to add here is that the numbers are so shockingly clear, this article will doubtlessly inspire immediate fake “fact checks” and effort to censor, launched by the usual suspects. The propagandists will crunch different odds and figures, and try to poke holes in this analysis to make it sound as though this is a complete misinterpretation. Debunked. Conspiracy Theory.
For example, they would doubtlessly rather utilize calculations that incorporate worst case scenario numbers from decades past when diseases were at their height, without taking into account a disease’s natural ebb and flow. They would rather look at disease toll from a time when there were fewer medical advancements to prevent disease spread and serious illness. And— fair enough on this one— they would prefer to use calculations that look at disease risk in the distant past when nobody was vaccinated, rather than look at the risk today with most people vaccinated. I’ll address that in this article.
In any event, I offer this simply for your own analysis and consideration, to add to the body of knowledge.
Read on for details.
The Numbers You’ve Never Seen
Above: GROK analysis using CDC and publicly available information and estimates
Here’s how I approached it. I had Grok identify and tally up the cumulative risks of 35 serious vaccine side effects, including seizures, heart issues, and death—and 35 milder ones—including fever or soreness—for a child who gets all 43 CDC-recommended shots.
Then we compared that to the odds an unvaccinated kid today would catch one of 17 diseases (including measles, polio, and flu) and suffer 35 serious or 35 less serious effects from those diseases. (Keep in mind, the odds that a child will catch one of those diseases today is pretty low, and some of that is due to vaccination. I’ll address that chicken or egg point in a moment.)
The information to make the calculations comes primarily from the CDC website.
The Results
The gap is massive: serious risks from vaccinating are 60 times higher than serious risks from disease today. Milder risks from vaccinating are 14 times higher. Why?
Every child who gets the recommended 43 shots is guaranteed exposure to possible side effects. But an unvaccinated kid? They’re not catching most of these diseases—measles reportedly hit just 271 kids in 2024, and polio’s been zero wild cases since 1979 (the last U.S. cases were from the old oral vaccine itself, not the disease). This year, full blown panic has been generated over 222 US measles cases, so far.
Here are the results from the chart in bar graph form.
Why Parents Are Skeptical
These stats explain why some parents are wary about following the CDC’s recommended vaccine schedule..
If your child has an 8.5-in-1,000 chance of a serious vaccine reaction but only a 0.14-in-1,000 shot at a bad disease outcome, that’s worthy of consideration! As for milder illnesses? Statistically, nearly every vaccinated kid gets something from vaccines (9 in 10), while only 1 in 15 unvaccinated might get a mild impact from a vaccine-preventable disease.
Additionally, parents observe that vaccinated people are catching diseases anyway—measles and mumps aren’t rare in the vaccinated—and think: Why take the risk? That’s not wild speculation; it’s math meeting real-life experience.
Today’s Diseases Aren’t the Old Monsters
Here’s a confounding point.
Public health officials point out that current disease risk is low in part because of vaccines. “Stop vaccinating, and that number will climb,” they argue.
They’re referring to the idea of herd immunity—when most people are vaccinated, diseases don’t spread easily. But if everyone stopped getting shots, experts predict serious disease risks could jump to 10-50 out of 1,000 (1-5%), hitting 720,000 to 3.6 million kids over 18 years—eclipsing the 611,000 injuries and illnesses from vaccines. Milder effects could climb too, from 66/1,000 to nearly everyone.
But here’s the rub. That “climb” assumes diseases would rage like it’s still 1950.
In fact, much has changed.
Measles deaths fell over 98% from 1900 to 1963—before the vaccine—thanks to better food, cleaner water, and doctors. Today, we’ve got antibiotics, IV fluids, and top-notch care. Even if diseases spiked without vaccines, experts say fewer kids would die or suffer long-term than decades ago.
Plus, if you catch something like measles naturally, you’re generally presumed immune for life—no boosters needed.
Of course this isn’t to minimize the very real cases where children catch and suffer from contagious diseases. Most everyone would hope to avoid this, if possible. It’s just that only half of the calculus is usually presented to the public. Vaccines are presented as if they are all benefit; no risk. And they are measured against an unrealistic scenario, as if all unvaccinated children are at risk of getting terrible cases of the all of the diseases.
The CDC’s schedule has ballooned to 43 shots from a handful in the ‘50s, stacking risk on kids when diseases aren’t the threat they once were. On paper, vaccinating is riskier today because not every unvaccinated kid gets sick—unlike every vaccinated kid facing 43 shots.
Even if the risk benefit ratio is clear, it can still boil down to a proverbial crap shoot. If your unvaccinated child were to become a rare fatal or severe injury case from a disease that a vaccine theoretically prevents, you would wish you had taken your chances with the vaccine. But if your child suffers a serious vaccine injury, you might wish you had taken your chance with the risk of disease.
One can play the odds, but unfortunately, that doesn’t provide any foolproof guarantees.
Public Good vs. My Kid
The reality pits “public good” against the health of “your child.” It’s unreasonable to expect parents to toss aside what’s best for their individual children today in favor of theoretical “what ifs” and “the greater good” argument.
The narrative argues that 611,000 vaccine injuries are worth it to avoid millions of disease cases. But if modern medicine cuts disease damage—and most unvaccinated kids dodge them anyway—does that “greater good” argument still hold up? If your child is the one in 118 with a seizure, “herd immunity” feels like a weak excuse.
It’s worth asking: Have we piled on so many shots that we’ve tipped the scales past what’s best for society, especially when fewer kids would suffer seriously from diseases today?
Who’s Making Bank?
Follow the Money, and the puzzle becomes more complex.
Vaccine giants like Pfizer, Merck, and Moderna cash in big based on all the vaccines our kids get today. The US spends an estimated $4-5 billion a year on childhood vaccines. Over 18 years, that’s $60-75 billion for 72 million kids. Pfizer’s Covid shot alone made $37.8 billion in 2022; Merck’s MMR and chickenpox vaccines pull hundreds of millions yearly. Trim that schedule, and they’d lose billions.
The Takeaway: Risk vs. Reality
According to Grok’s math, it’s clear: “Vaccination gives you an 8.5-in-1,000 chance of a serious event—611,000 kids—while an unvaccinated kid today faces just 0.14-in-1,000, about 1,000 cases. For milder illnesses, it’s 900-in-1,000 among the vaccinated, 64.8 million, versus 66-in-1,000 unvaccinated, under half a million. Vaccines carry way higher risk per kid because catching these diseases isn’t a sure thing anymore.”
Parents aren’t wrong to question a system that’s upped the ante on risk while diseases fade. The public health system would do well to consider today’s reality and be transparent with risk vs. benefit to come up with vaccine formulations and a vaccine schedule that’s likely to benefit the most and harm the fewest.
What We Crunched
Vaccines and Doses (43 Total):
DTaP (5), HepB (3), MMR (2), IPV (4), Hib (3), PCV (4), Varicella (2), Rotavirus (3), HepA (2), Covid-19 (at least 2), HPV (1 series), Flu (18 annual).
35 Serious Vaccine Side Effects:
Death, anaphylaxis, Guillain-Barré, encephalitis, seizures, paralysis, myocarditis, thrombocytopenia, intussusception, severe allergy, meningitis, stroke, chronic arthritis, autism (hypothetical), disability, fainting with injury, Bell’s palsy, spinal inflammation, brain swelling, collapse episodes, vasculitis, severe skin reaction, optic neuritis, lung inflammation, bleeding disorders, cardiac arrest, kidney failure, hepatitis, lung clots, clotting disorder, anemia, pancreatitis, muscle breakdown, septic shock, birth defects.
35 Less Serious Vaccine Side Effects:
Fever, redness, swelling, pain, fatigue, headache, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, rash, mild allergy, irritability, crying, appetite loss, drowsiness, muscle aches, joint pain, chills, sweating, dizziness, cough, runny nose, sore throat, abdominal pain, lymph swelling, itching, hives, tinnitus, tremors, palpitations, mouth ulcers, earache, wheezing, vision blur, chest discomfort.
17 Diseases:
Measles, mumps, rubella, polio, pertussis, diphtheria, tetanus, Hib, pneumococcal, flu, varicella, HepB, rotavirus, meningococcal, COVID-19, HepA, HPV.
35 Serious Disease Side Effects:
Death (various), encephalitis (measles, mumps), pneumonia (measles, flu), seizures (pertussis), heart failure (diphtheria), paralysis (polio), meningitis (Hib, pneumococcal), bacteremia (pneumococcal), lockjaw (tetanus), orchitis (mumps), congenital defects (rubella), cirrhosis (HepB), dehydration (rotavirus), amputation (meningococcal), etc.
35 Less Serious Disease Side Effects:
Rash (measles, varicella), fever (multiple), cough (pertussis, flu), apnea (pertussis), sore throat (diphtheria), fatigue (polio, HepB), ear infection (pneumococcal), spasms (tetanus), swollen glands (mumps), diarrhea (rotavirus), nausea (HepA), itching (varicella), headache (flu), etc.
Counting the 43 Shots
Here’s the full schedule we used, with number of shots and doses:
DTaP: 5 shots = 15 doses (diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis).
HepB: 3 shots = 3 doses (hepatitis B).
MMR: 2 shots = 6 doses (measles, mumps, rubella).
IPV: 4 shots = 4 doses (polio).
Hib: 3 shots = 3 doses (Haemophilus influenzae type b).
PCV: 4 shots = 4 doses (pneumococcal).
Varicella: 2 shots = 2 doses (chickenpox).
Rotavirus: 3 shots = 3 doses (rotavirus).
HepA: 2 shots = 2 doses (hepatitis A).
COVID-19: 2 shots = 2 doses (COVID-19).
HPV: 1 shot (assuming a 2-dose series averaged as 1 administration) = 1 dose (human papillomavirus).
Flu: 18 shots = 18 doses (influenza).
Total
Shots: 5 + 3 + 2 + 4 + 3 + 4 + 2 + 3 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 18 = 43 shots.
Doses: 15 + 3 + 6 + 4 + 3 + 4 + 2 + 3 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 18 = 63 doses.
Try Vaccination — It never will hurt you,
For Vaccination has this one great virtue:
Should it injure or kill you whenever you receive it,
We all stand prepared to refuse to believe it.
—From a circular signed "The Doctors", 1876
Great reporting. Another factor to consider is that non-sterilizing vaccines given while a pathogen is spreading can accelerate the evolution of the pathogen and also impair the ability of recipients to mount an immune response. I've seen some studies that report this may be happening with the flu vaccine, and it almost certain happened with COVID.
There's a basic equivocation going on, in which vaccines against rapidly mutating viruses are considered the same as one-and-done vaccines against very stable viral targets.
There is also the problem that no one is studying the cumulative effects of the vaccines or the risk of giving multiple shots together (stacking them, as you referenced). And the "turtles all the way down" problem, i.e. that there are no placebo-controlled studies but only studies of vaccine Q in comparison to vaccine P, which is compared to vaccine O, etc.
And then there is the mRNA platform, which introduces an entirely different order of risks apart from mere "side effects" in the usual sense of that word. Long-term studies are non-existent because it's a new platform, and the manufacturers are not in any hurry to do them.