Prediction: Trump for the win

...But I could be wrong

Here’s my 2024 prediction (which is worth absolutely nothing):

Trump wins by a comfortable margin, if it’s a fair election.

This does *not* imply that, if Trump loses, I’m automatically saying there was cheating or unfairness. I could simply be wrong. I’m not an expert or political pundit.

Here’s why I say Trump wins comfortably:

As in 2016 and 2020, I’ve tried to watch most of the candidate’s appearances and rallies. In 2024, taken together, I feel as though they point to a Trump win.

In addition:

Trump is more popular now than he was in 2016 and 2020.

He was more popular in 2020 than 2016.

He has significantly gained support, since 2020, among Hispanics and Blacks.

The border crisis has worsened and touched many more cities and states since 2020.

People feel as though they’re paying way more (too much) for groceries, gas, and other goods since 2020.

We’ve grown embroiled in multiple global conficts since 2020.

Democrats don’t have as large an advantage in terms of unprecedented numbers of mail in ballots and lax verification rules as they had in 2020.

Trump has a measurable track record as president.

He didn’t suspend democracy, refuse to leave the White House, end social security, press the nuclear button, start wars, or crash the stock market, as predicted.

Kamala Harris also has a measurable track record, and it’s largely contrary to what she claims she will do, if elected.

Under Harris, the border crisis worsened, and inflation grew out of control while Biden officials mistakenly called it “transitory.”

Harris initially spiked in popularity upon taking Biden’s place. But the more people have seen of her, the less attractive (as a candidate) many people find her to be.

To most voters who support Harris, her best feature is that she isn’t Trump. That isn’t enough to inspire the win she needs.

On the other hand, Trump’s negatives were already baked into his formula from the start. There wasn’t, and isn’t, much of anything he could say or do that would change minds.

Polls usually understate Trump support. Perhaps they have corrected to some degree but it’s doubtful they overstate Trump support, and the trending is currently overall in his favor in the battleground states, electoral count, and the popular vote.