Tampa Mayor: 'You Are Going to Die'

Rational hurricane warning or unhelpful hyperbole?

On Tuesday, ahead of the massive hurricane Milton hitting Florida’s west coast, Tampa Mayor Jane Castor issued a dire warning.

“I can say this without any dramatization whatsoever,” Castor told a CNN television audience. “If you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you are going to die.”

Her heart may be in the right place, but it’s difficult not to conclude that she could be undercutting the very point she’s trying to make.

Obviously, Castor had to be dramatizing, despite the fact that she stated she was not. That’s because she cannot tell the future and can’t rationally claim to know that 100% of people in evacuation areas are “going to die” if they choose to remain. In fact, while that outcome is theoretically possible, it would be highly unlikely based on what history has taught us in the past.

I did a quick search and couldn’t find of any cases where every single person who stayed in an evacuation zone during a hurricane was confirmed to have perished.

Most who have lived in evacuation areas for any length of time understand this reality. And they might not find Castor’s exaggerated warning persuasive because it doesn’t ring true. What’s worse, the language may lead to them disregard the potential for peril.

What could Castor have said to make her point in a way that feels more accurate and on target?

She might have said something like, “If you choose to stay in one of those evauation areas, the best experts say you’re risking death” or “there’s every chance you will lose your life” or “there’s a great risk you won’t survive.”

Growing up in Florida and covering many hurricanes there (and elsewhere as a national news reporter), I always found some of the more persuasive arguments on the side of evacuating include:

1. Pointing out that, for those who stay, there’s a good chance that if they do need help, they’ll find themselves outside the reach of rescue workers.

2. The choice not to leave a high risk area can expose first responders to undue danger, because they will ultimately try to save victims, no matter how precarious the work may be.

3. If you decide to evacuate at the last minute, the roads might be too flooded, the bridges cut off, or the traffic too bad for you to be able to make it out.

Here’s hoping for the least destructive outcome possible from Milton. Stay safe!